KoBold Bets on a Zambian Copper Deposit Others Left Behind

KoBold Metals, a U.S.-based startup backed by high-profile investors, is advancing development of the Mingomba copper deposit in Zambia. The company has committed over $200 million to date and aims to begin shaft sinking in early 2026, with first production targeted for 2031.

Mingomba is among the highest-grade known copper deposits in Africa, with ore grades of around 5 percent. It is often compared to Ivanhoe’s Kakula deposit in the DRC. If brought online as planned, it could become one of the continent’s largest copper producers. But while the deposit is rich, it is not new, and its complexity and development costs have deterred others.

From KoBold to Anglo

The Mingomba deposit was first discovered in 1979 by Anglo American, which chose not to proceed with development due to low copper prices and the technical difficulty of extraction at depth. In 2004, the asset was acquired by Equinox Minerals, which also passed on it, instead focusing capital on the neighboring Lumwana mine.

In the years that followed, the asset was held through a joint venture between EMR Capital and Zambia’s state-owned ZCCM‑IH, but no significant development occurred. In late 2022, KoBold Metals acquired an 80 percent stake in the project, becoming the lead developer. ZCCM‑IH retains a minority stake through the joint venture structure.

Why Previous Owners Walked

Despite its high grade, Mingomba has always posed challenges. The ore body lies deep underground, likely over 500 meters, making development technically demanding and capital intensive. Earlier owners viewed the economics as marginal given copper prices at the time, $0.60–$0.80 per pound for Anglo in 1979 and $1.30 per pound for Equinox in 2004, far below the $4.00–$5.00 per pound KoBold anticipates today. KoBold’s bet is that today’s market conditions, and its ability to co-locate with existing infrastructure, tip the balance in its favor.

The company has signaled that it may leverage regional infrastructure, like the Lobito Corridor and those developed by other miners, to reduce its upfront capital burden. CEO of KoBold Africa, Mfikeyi Makayi, has stated that shaft sinking could begin ahead of schedule. Pre-production costs are currently projected at $300 million, with total development expected to reach $2.3 billion. KoBold may seek partners to help execute the buildout.

A Mining or AI Firm?

KoBold has raised $392 million since 2018, with support from Breakthrough Energy Ventures and investors such as Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Michael Bloomberg. The company initially positioned itself as using artificial intelligence to help identify underexplored mineral deposits, particularly for copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium.

While KoBold has since shifted away from describing itself as an AI company, the early technology narrative likely played a role in attracting capital, at levels that few traditional mining startups can access. Experienced operators often struggle to raise comparable sums, even for well-advanced projects.

The comparison is not perfect, but WeWork’s IPO prospectus in 2019 offers a useful parallel. It used the word “technology” more than 110 times to describe what was essentially a real estate business. In KoBold’s case, the Mingomba deposit is not undiscovered or novel, it is well known and has been studied by several firms over the decades. This investment may reflect a bet on timing, capital availability, and long-term copper demand as much as it does any specific technological edge.

Whether KoBold’s tools bring new efficiencies remains to be seen, but the company’s ability to mobilize funding and move quickly sets it apart in a capital-constrained sector.

Historical Footnote on "Kobold"

The name “KoBold” draws from German folklore. Kobolds were mythical underground spirits, at times helpful and at times troublesome, believed to inhabit mines and meddle in the work of miners. Their legacy lives on in mining lore, if not geology.