Africa Faces New 15% Baseline Under U.S. Tariff Regime

On July 31, 2025, the U.S. overhauled its global tariff schedule, introducing reciprocal trade rates for over 70 countries. Most African nations, long beneficiaries of duty-free access under AGOA or GSP, now face a flat 15% tariff, abruptly ending decades of preferential treatment. This shift drastically alters trade margins for key exports like apparel, processed foods, and auto parts. Countries not specifically listed received a default rate of 10% or temporary deferrals, such as Mexico and China’s 90-day extensions.

The New 15% Baseline

Roughly 90% of African countries listed were hit with a new 15% tariff rate under the U.S. executive order announced today, July 31, 2025. This wipes out zero-duty perks under AGOA and GSP for key players like Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Morocco, Uganda, Tunisia, Egypt, and Côte d'Ivoire. The change hits hardest in labor-intensive industries that relied on zero-duty entry to remain competitive.

WINNERS

Lesotho emerged as a surprise winner. The small, landlocked country, dependent on textile exports and rumored to face tariffs of up to 45%, secured a 15% rate, well lower than anticipated. On July 9, Lesotho declared a national disaster due to the expected collapse of its textile industry, which contributes over 17% of GDP and employs tens of thousands. A 15% tariff will still hurt, but it averts an immediate crisis.

Some speculate that the favorable tariff treatment for East African countries—like Kenya (10%), Ethiopia (10%), and Tanzania (10%)—alongside the unexpected leniency for Lesotho (15%), points to an emerging U.S. strategy to shift low-end textile production from Asia to Africa. Africa may be being quietly positioned as the next sourcing hub for lower end textile products.

Djibouti received the 10% rate despite modest trade volumes, likely reflecting its strategic port location and expanding U.S. military cooperation. Mauritius, though classified as middle-income, retained the 10% rate as well, safeguarding $245 million in annual exports, mostly apparel and processed seafood. Egypt also avoided the 15% baseline and was granted a 10% rate, preserving access for about $1.3 billion in non-oil exports, including garments, processed foods, and automotive wiring. Its geopolitical importance and history of close U.S. relations likely contributed to the favorable treatment.

LOSERS

South Africa was the standout loser with a 30% rate, double the continental norm. This is likely punishment for both its foreign policy tilt and middle-income status. Citrus, wine, and automotive components are now at a disadvantage in the U.S. market. Some may be priced out entirely, redirecting exports elsewhere or cutting production. A BRICS 10% punitive tariff may also be looming.

North African nations were also unexpectedly penalized. Despite active trade agreements with the U.S., Morocco and Tunisia seem set to receive the 10% rate as countries with no formal deals. That effectively nullifies their past advantages and may signal a broader U.S. intention to roll back older FTAs that no longer serve its strategic interests.

Nigeria also received the 15% tariff rate, though the immediate impact is muted. The country exported only $1.16 billion to the U.S. in 2024, down sharply from over $38 billion during the peak AGOA oil years. With the U.S. no longer dependent on Nigerian crude, non-oil exports remain weak, mostly cocoa, sesame, and some agro-processing. A 10% punitive tariff for BRICS has been publicly suggested for Nigeria.

Zambia received the 15% tariff despite a stable political climate and strong cooperation with the IMF. In most cases, it would have qualified for the 10% rate, but its growing alignment with China, including over $3.5 billion in BRI-linked projects, likely tipped the scale. The U.S. may be signaling concern over Chinese influence in Zambia’s copper and logistics sectors.